中国与东南亚地区的未来 “加强合作，化解冲突”

随着中国经济崛起，与全球联系越来越紧密，受全球高度认可为“世界新发动引擎”的东南亚必须思考与中国将建立起一个怎么样的未来。显然地，随着中国提出的“一带一路”倡议深度推展，东南亚应该追求与中国朝向“加强合作，化解冲突”发展。

眼下，全球经济大环境充满着变数，牵引着西方老牌工业发达国、中国以及东南亚新兴经济体的发展路向。我们也应该尽量厘清楚当前局势，伺机行动，做好随时调整步伐的准备。

（一）首先，是美国的对华政策对国际经济、贸易影响深远，牵一发动全身。美国总统特朗普提出的“美国优先”、“贸易保护主义”等过激言论和举动都导致了中美贸易战的爆发。

东南亚如何在两大超级强国之间取得平衡，甚至超越“一方损失，即一方所获”的零和博弈桎梏，考验着亚洲领导人的思维和政治智慧。

（二）其次，由美国、印度、欧盟组成的所谓“亚太再平衡战略”，同样打着抗衡“一带一路”倡议的旗帜。该战略只为了确保美国的“军事霸权”地位，同时将美国军事重心转向亚太地区。

由于参与国各自打算盘，加上战略眼光不等于具备战略执行力和意志力，亚洲再平衡战略被上一任总统奥巴马的执行不力，现任总统特朗普缺乏前瞻和长期规划，“亚太再平衡战略”基本上名存实亡，根本不值得东南亚国家考虑加入。

（三）谈到东南亚的传统角色及未来趋势，我们不能忘了，3年前成立的东盟经济共同体（AEC）及其重要性。东盟经济共同体成功创造了一体化市场，便利区内产品、服务、投资、资金及人员流动，为区域经济融合奠下重要里程碑。

东南亚总面积约457万平方公里，人口约6亿。这本身就是一个不容忽视的庞大市场。接下来，借助中国企业先进的技术、资金和人才，将让东南亚实现技术转移和产业升级。这也是中国透过“一带一路”与周边国家，尤其是东南亚构建“命运共同体”的目的。

（四）小国在大国博弈中的冲衡角色。处在大国竞相争夺利益与话语权的洪流中，小国或发展中国家必须发展平衡、均势外交。这种技巧，应该是东南亚的长期对外政策的核心。

随着中国要想顺利地和平崛起，扫除美国等西方强国的存心阻挠、刁难，维护周边邻国稳定，东南亚推行的外交政策除了一如既往的“中立”原则外，还可以更多的考虑与中国建立良好的往来关系。

而面对东南亚国家多变的政治气候，朝向发达国家的中国政府则有必要审时度势，开展积极主动和多元化的外交活动，注重双边关系、民心相通的重要性。

（五）对话取代对抗，合作化解冲突。为了发挥理性沟通，以和为贵的最高人道关怀精神，由中国与东盟共同签署的《南海各方行为宣言》就是最好的行动和成果。这一份《宣言》贵在强调通过友好协商和谈判，以和平方式解决南海有关争议。在争议解决之前，各方承诺保持克制，不采取使争议复杂化和扩大化的行动，并本着合作与谅解的精神，寻求建立相互信任的途径，包括开展海洋环保、搜寻与求助、打击跨国犯罪等合作。

各位，唯有各方拥有巩固和发展各国人民和政府之间业已存在的友谊与合作的决心、尊重和意志力，再通过建立对话、合作、信任的机制，才能促进面向21世纪睦邻互信伙伴关系。

我冀望，中国与东南亚地区的未来将为历史写下崭新的一页，也是实现和平进程的重要一页。

(2018年10月10日于南华早报举办的中国论坛发言)

"Strengthening cooperation and resolving conflicts"

The future of China and Southeast Asia

With the rise of China's economy and its closer ties with the world, Southeast Asia, which is highly recognized by the world as the "new engine of the world", we must think about what kind of future to be built with China.  Along with the in-depth promotion of the Belt and Road initiative, Southeast Asia should pursue the development of “strengthening cooperation and resolving conflicts” with China.

At present, the global economic environment is full of variables, leading and affecting the development direction of China, Western old industrialized countries, and Southeast Asia emerging economies. We should try to clarify the current situation, wait for opportunities, and always be ready to adjust our footsteps in pace with the economic environment.

(1) Firstly, the impact on the international economic and trade that caused by United States. Excessive rhetoric and actions such as "US priority" and "trade protectionism" proposed by US President Trump have led to the outbreak of Sino-US trade war.

How Southeast Asia balances between the two superpowers, and even surpasses the “one party’s loss, is one party’s gain”, is a zero-sum game that tests the thinking and political wisdom of Asian leaders.

(B) Secondly, the so-called "Asia-Pacific rebalancing strategy" composed of the United States, India and the European Union which use to counter the Belt and Road initiative. The strategy is merely to ensure the US's "military hegemony" status, while shifting the US military focus to the Asia-Pacific region.

As each of the participating countries have their own plans, and possess strategic vision does not mean to possess strategic execution and willpower, in addition, poor execution by the previous President Barack Obama and the lack of prospects and long-term planning by current President Trump, the Asia-Pacific rebalancing strategy, is exist in name only.

(3) Talking about the traditional roles and future trends of Southeast Asia, we must not forget the importance of ASEAN Economic Community (AEC), which established three years ago. The ASEAN Economic Community has successfully created an integrated market, facilitating the flow of products, services, investment, capital and personnel in the region, laying an important milestone for regional economic integration.

Southeast Asia has a total area of about 4.57 million square kilometers and a population of about 600 million. This in itself is a huge market. With the advanced technology, capital and talents of Chinese companies, the technology transfer and industrial upgrading in Southeast Asia will be realized. This is also the purpose of the construct of the "destiny community" by China through the Belt and Road and neighboring countries, especially Southeast Asia.

(4) The role of small countries in the big countries’ game of power. In the torrent of big countries competing for interests and discourse power, small countries or developing countries must maintain balance and stable in terms of development and diplomacy. This should be the core of Southeast Asia’s foreign policy.

In pace with China wish to rise its world power peacefully, sweeping away the impediments of the United States and other Western powers, and maintaining the stability of neighboring countries; Southeast Asia, besides in pursuing a "neutral" principle may consider to establish a better relationship with China.

China, moving towards as developed country, needs to review the ever-changing political situation of Southeast Asia, to carry out proactive and diversified diplomatic activities, and to emphasize the importance of bilateral relations and popular support.

(5) Dialogue replaces confrontation and cooperation resolves conflicts. In order to play a rational communication and a noble and caring spirit, the "South China Sea Declaration of Action" signed by China and ASEAN is the best action and result. This "Declaration" emphasizes the peaceful settlement of relevant disputes in the South China Sea through friendly consultations and negotiations. Before the dispute was resolved, all parties promised to exercise restraint, not to take actions that complicate and magnify the dispute, and in the spirit of cooperation and understanding, seek ways to build mutual trust, including marine environmental protection, search and help, and combating transnational crime.

Ladies and gentlemen, in order to consolidate and develop the existing friendship and cooperation between the peoples and governments of all countries; determination, respect and willpower is a must.  Only by establishing a mechanism of dialogue, cooperation and trust can we promote a partnership of good-neighborliness and mutual trust towards the 21st century. .

I hope that the future of China and Southeast Asia will write a new page for history and an important page for achieving the peace process.

(Speech on October 10, 2018, The South China Morning Post's China Conference.)